A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Efforts to pause or even end the war in Ukraine enter a new phase this Thursday.
MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Representatives from Russia and Ukraine are expected to gather in Turkey for negotiations - their first since the early months of the Kremlin's full-scale invasion in 2022.
MARTÍNEZ: NPR's Charles Maynes is covering this story. He's on line from Moscow. Charles, how do these talks even come about?
CHARLES MAYNES, BYLINE: Yeah, sure, A. You know, to a degree, I think you can credit efforts by the Trump administration to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine even if at times those efforts skewed heavily in Russia's favor because this meeting, it comes amid wrangling between Moscow and Kyiv to show President Trump they're the more serious party for peace, or at least the other is an obstacle to it.
MARTÍNEZ: Show Trump. It makes it sound like they're almost competing for Trump's favor. I mean, is that what's happening here?
MAYNES: It does seem that way. This latest maneuvering began after Russian president Vladimir Putin unilaterally called for a three-day ceasefire around events marking the Soviet victory in World War II. That was last week. Ukraine never agreed but only because it said why just three days? You know, we could have a longer ceasefire. That idea got backing from Europe and the U.S., who, to give it some teeth, threatened new sanctions if Putin didn't commit to an immediate 30-day ceasefire. But instead, Putin made a counteroffer. He called for direct talks with Ukraine starting Thursday in Istanbul. Let's listen.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN: (Speaking Russian).
MAYNES: So, here, Putin says "military operations are ongoing. A war is happening, and we are offering to return to negotiations," adding, "what could be bad about that?"
MARTÍNEZ: So, I mean, is this a change of heart for Russia or a political tactic?
MAYNES: Well, it certainly appears strategic. President Trump endorsed the idea and demanded Ukraine participate and that's forced Europe to hold off on new sanctions against Russia for now. So it's bought Moscow some time.
MARTÍNEZ: Alright. Now, who is headed to Turkey for these negotiations? Do we know who is on the list there?
MAYNES: Well, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he'll be there, and he's challenged Putin to show up, even as he's expressed skepticism over Putin's motives.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
PRESIDENT VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY: (Speaking Ukrainian).
MAYNES: So here, Zelenskyy says he doesn't believe Putin actually wants to end the war or a ceasefire and that this is essentially all just a stalling tactic.
MARTÍNEZ: And yet, it sounds like Zelenskyy has thrown the gauntlet down. I mean, what are the chances that Vladimir Putin does come?
MAYNES: Well, you know, the Kremlin routinely presents Zelenskyy as illegitimate, so there are reasons to doubt Putin would engage directly. But entered President Trump, currently in the Middle East, as we just heard, who suggested he might stop by for the talks. That's prompted speculation Putin might, as well, although it'd certainly involved a lot of stars aligning - probably too many.
MARTÍNEZ: OK. So whatever form these meetings actually wind up taking, I mean, what are the chances of a deal?
MAYNES: Well, if Trump, Putin and Zelenskyy really do gather in a room together, I think anything could happen. But without them, some kind of ceasefire seems the best hope, and even that would take some doing. The Kremlin sees an extended truce as a way for Ukraine to rearm at a moment when Russia has the battlefield advantage, and Russia's demanding a stop to all Western arms shipments to Ukraine as a result.
MARTÍNEZ: Alright. That's NPR's Charles Maynes in Moscow. Thank you very much.
MAYNES: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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