The 2026 midterms are on track to be the most expensive on record, driven by enthusiasm for Democratic candidates and massive contributions by Republican megadonors, especially Elon Musk.
More than $15 billion has been raised since the start of 2025, according to Federal Election Commission data, and half of that has been spent so far. Ad spending on House and Senate races has topped $4 billion, with hundreds of millions of dollars more planned for the final two weeks of the election, according to AdImpact data.
After winning the White House and a narrow majority in the House and Senate in 2024, Republicans now face an electorate that has soured on President Trump's agenda amid an unpopular war in Iran, high fuel costs and rising prices.
The Democratic Party as a national brand is unpopular, too. But a crop of Senate candidates in more conservative-leaning states like Iowa, Texas, Kansas and Ohio, and Democratic hopefuls in newly competitive House districts, have surged in polls and fundraising.
Despite Democrats' fundraising advantage at the candidate level, Republican outside groups — including a trio of super PACs tied to Trump's MAGA, Inc. — have outspent Democrats on the airwaves to try to paint that party as too extreme to control Congress.
Here are four takeaways from the latest campaign finance filings and what they say about the sprint to Election Day.
Democratic Senate dominance
One of the more surprising developments this election cycle is the number of U.S. Senate races that have become competitive, driven in part by Republicans being outraised by their opponents by sometimes wide margins.
From July to September, the Democratic or independent candidate outraised their Republican opponent in 27 of the 35 Senate races on the ballot, posting a nearly 5-to-1 advantage in the 13 most competitive races.
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Texas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico's main campaign committee reported bringing in about $60 million in the third quarter, which the campaign says is a record for a Senate campaign in that period before the election.
That is also more than what any other Senate candidate has raised the entire cycle, except Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia.
It's not just the longtime expensive toss-up races like Ohio, Texas and Michigan, either.
In the last fundraising quarter, Kansas Democrat Adam Hamilton raised nearly $10 million into his primary campaign committee, compared to just $800,000 for incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall.
Mississippi Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde Smith reported less than $700,000 in contributions, while both Republican Sens. Mike Rounds of South Dakota and Jim Risch of Idaho disclosed just under half a million dollars in third quarter receipts. Their opponents reported roughly double the haul.
Democrats currently hold 47 Senate seats and have sought to use their fundraising edge, along with Republican unpopularity, to target races in states where Trump won as much as 60% of the vote.
Dozens of House incumbents are outraised
Next year's Congress is already set to have a record number of departures, and that's before you account for a number of incumbents who could lose in November.
The anti-incumbency vibe present throughout the primaries has continued with fundraising, with 50 sitting House members being outraised in the last quarter — about 90% of them Republicans.
Of the 17 vulnerable lawmakers on the National Republican Congressional Committee's list of "NRCC Patriots," only one – Pennsylvania Republican Brian Fitzpatrick – reported raising more cash than his opponent. Only three of the 27 challengers who are part of the "MAGA Majority" program — were the top fundraisers in their districts, too.
On the Democratic side, the only vulnerable incumbent tagged as a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Frontliner" who was outraised last quarter was Nevada Rep. Dina Titus, while 40 of the 46 seats targeted as "Red to Blue" flips saw the Democratic candidate raise more money.
That includes deep-red districts in Arkansas, Kentucky and Nevada that have seen a surge in ad spending from Republicans trying to protect those seats.
There are seven longer-shot "Districts In Play" that saw Democrats raise more money, including KS-02, MI-01, NE-02 and OH-10, all of which are in states with competitive Senate races.
Several of the races expected to be the closest in November saw eye-popping fundraising totals from both candidates, like the more than $7 million combined raised last quarter in the NY-17 contest between Republican Rep. Mike Lawler and Democrat Cait Conley.
Conley's $5.4 million Q3 haul is the largest of any House campaign, and more than all but one incumbent U.S. Senator raised in the same time frame.
Musk's money dominates Texas
Last week's campaign filings also reveal a fuller picture of Musk's outsize role in funding the Republican effort to keep Congress, especially the Texas Senate race.In recent weeks, Musk donated $158 million to the Republican Senate Leadership Fund, $20 million to the Congressional Leadership Fund, $89 million to his America PAC and $10 million to the pro-Ken Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC.
The Senate Leadership Fund contribution was then used to solely fund the Texas PAC, which has already spent more than $148 million to boost Paxton and attack Talarico.
To put the donation in perspective, Musk's contributions to the Texas PAC is more than the Talarico and Paxton campaigns have raised combined throughout the entire campaign cycle. It's roughly the amount spent on advertising for all 470 congressional races in the first week of September. For every dollar raised by a Senate campaign in the past three months, Musk spent about 56 cents just in Texas.
Still, advertising rules that give candidates more favorable rates mean the Musk money bomb does not go as far, especially in the broader deluge of advertising in Texas' expensive numerous media markets.
Outside/ad spending shows landscape is deep and wide
Beyond the press release bluster and public proclamations about which races are competitive and the optimistic nature both parties put on about the money raised in key contests, the money spent tells the true story about where the landscape lies.
From now until Election Day, at least $700 million in advertising reservations are planned, according to AdImpact, and the number is likely to rise in the final sprint. Three-quarters of that is for races that are either toss-ups or some degree of Republican-favored, according to the Cook Political Report.
Since Sept. 28, Republicans have more than quadrupled their ad spending in the Kansas Senate race, tripled the investment in Mississippi's Senate contest and in House seats in Missouri, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Kentucky.
At the same time, the party has also removed spending from Senate races in North Carolina and Georgia and onetime toss-up House seats in Iowa, Ohio and Nebraska that now favor Democrats.
Democrats have launched a full-court press on the Senate side with millions of dollars in additional ad spending in the existing competitive races in Ohio, Michigan, Maine, Texas and Alaska, while adding Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi and South Carolina to the mix. On the House side, many of the "Red to Blue" and "Districts In Play" designations have been followed by actual spending, like AR-02, MN-01, MT-01 and KY-06.
Oct. 15 marked the last major quarterly campaign finance deadline, but large campaign contributions and outside expenditures will be reported with a one- or two-day turnaround all the way through Election Day.
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