MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Let's talk more about the results of this election with Nathan Gonzales. He's the editor and publisher of Inside Elections, which provides nonpartisan election analysis. Good morning.
NATHAN GONZALES: Good morning.
MARTIN: You know, let me just go back for a minute into the history. The president's party often loses ground in the midterms - right? - so you could expect some of this result. But how would you compare these results to sort of the historical trend? I mean, how much is history and how much of this is sort of the factors of the moment?
GONZALES: It's been really interesting to hear, for months, Republicans talk about bucking history and what they're going to do. And now they're falling back on, well, this was inevitable. In 2014, in President Trump's first midterm, he was unpopular and Republicans lost 40 seats but they also gained two Senate seats. So what we saw last night was not inevitable. What I'm watching in particular is what comes next.
So in 2006, there was an unpopular Republican president in the White House. There was a war in the Middle East that was driving up fuel prices, and that fueled a Democratic wave. Democrats came into the House and the Senate majorities there. Looking forward, though, two years later, that wave continued, with Democrats winning the White House and President Obama winning. Or is this like 2010, where 2010 was a Republican wave?
Two years after that, President Obama was reelected. And so, you know, we're digesting these results, but what comes next is also - is still to - and it's going to be determined by how strong the economy is and how people feel about the economy.
MARTIN: So Arkansas' former Republican governor, Asa Hutchinson, took questions on NPR's special election coverage last night. I just want to play a little bit of what he said.
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ASA HUTCHINSON: Chaos doesn't work. It's not a good governing strategy and it's not consistent with Republican principles. And one result, I think, of tonight's election, is that it's going to be a much more open process in the Republican primaries for president.
MARTIN: Do you think that's true?
GONZALES: Yes. I think we have to listen to how Republicans digest these results, and are they finally willing to turn the page from President Trump? They have not been able to do that, or been willing to do that, on a broad scale. But because the losses were so thorough and sweeping across the country, there are - there's going to be a choice that Republicans are going to have to make.
And Republican leadership might be willing to make that change more than what the base of the party who has been - they've been more behind Trump than just the rank-and-file Republicans here in Washington, D.C.
MARTIN: I am curious, though, about what the near term looks like. There's still a couple of months left in this term. And I'm just curious about what these Republicans who have - some of whom have been defeated, some of whom have decided to retire, some of whom were primaried, how they handle this next sort of phase here, when they still control every branch of government.
GONZALES: We have a lot more Republican wild cards on the Hill, Republicans who are not at the mercy of the president because they're not - they can't feel that pressure from a primary. That threat no longer exists. And so there are wildcards. We might see the president and Republicans try to push through more judges and try to get them confirmed in the lame duck.
We might see some specific race situations, where in Iowa, because there is an incoming Democratic governor, does Senator Chuck Grassley step down in order to have the current outgoing Republican governor appoint a Republican to his seat? So you could see some of that. But I - in general with Congress, the expectation is don't expect a lot.
MARTIN: Don't expect a lot. OK. On the Democratic side, what do you expect over the next couple of months while they're sort of waiting in the wings?
GONZALES: I mean, Democrats are going to be doing, you know, they're trying to balance what Mara was talking about, with investigations with that positive legislative agenda, but they're going to have to decide what is the future of the party. And right now, you have everyone taking credit. You have the progressives taking credit. You have the blue dogs taking credit. And they're going to have the fight. There's no - there's not going to be a leader of the Democratic Party until the nomination in 2028.
MARTIN: That's Nathan Gonzales. He's editor and publisher of Inside Elections. Nathan, thank you.
GONZALES: Thank you.
(SOUNDBITE OF SONG, "EVERYDAY PEOPLE")
SLY AND THE FAMILY STONE: (Singing) I am everyday people. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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