As Congress considers cuts to safety-net programs for what Republicans are calling the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," new analysis from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates 16 million Americans - including 95,000 Arkansans - would lose Medicaid health insurance.
If the bill passes "as is," said Josh Bivens, chief economist for the Economic Policy Institute, health providers would see a steep increase in what's known as "uncompensated care" - when people without coverage get sick and can't afford to pay their medical bill.
"And it means hospitals and doctors no longer receive that income stream from Medicaid payments," he said. "And lots of them are going to be forced out of business, and there's going to be closures of hospitals, especially in rural counties."
Republicans have cast doubt on the CBO's projections, and claimed cutting $715 billion from Medicaid by eliminating fraud and adding work requirements for adults would not reduce coverage. The GOP bill aims to fund Trump administration priorities, including more immigration raids and border wall construction, and extending tax cuts passed in 2017.
Bivens said if the bill becomes law, it would result in what he described as the direct transfer of income from vulnerable families to the richest Americans. He noted the average cuts to Medicaid, which would kick in after the 2026 midterm elections, would be more than $70 billion a year.
"And then if you look at the tax cuts that will be received by just people making over $1 million per year, those are $70 billion as well," he said. "We're going to take $70 billion away from poor families on Medicaid, and we're going to give it to families who are making more than $1 million per year."
Six Nobel Prize-winning economists wrote a letter warning that the bill's safety net cuts could add $5 trillion to the national debt. While headlines about the latest Trump-Musk feud may catch more people's attention, Bivens said it's this bill that will have the biggest impacts on Arkansans.
"And so," he said, "I think the fact that six Nobel Prize winners said, 'This is important enough for me to try to draw attention to the implications of this bill,' should make people realize the stakes are really large."